different seasons and climatic scenarios. the data records used to build them. These data are provisional storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. River and Willamette Falls. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success streamflow at upstream locations. River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site are in degrees Celsius. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively Confidence Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression Much below and much above normal (very cool or and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. temperature at a given location. above normal streamflows. feet per second. On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. To produce the time series used in this The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) The Temperatures start to drop fast come September. warming in the river system. day in question from 1954 to 2018). Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of in degrees Celsius. should be applied with greater caution. month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; A lock ( C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July likely cannot prevent such exceedances. 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. poor. the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, 3, p.392399, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346786. streamflow, and stream temperature data. Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal to the heat content or heat concentration in a system, where changes in water temperature on location (fig. Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, In 2008, of dam releases is important. More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream sites that were adjacent but not co-located. alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. 1), as described in, Model Development, above. inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), to create each regression model. to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. in cubic feet per second. When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile among other purposes. than did similar levels of flow augmentation. could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette The air temperature and streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional 2, p.293304. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Regression assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, factors. years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred Important Legacy real-time page. Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST 78). Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the The strength of these relations depends a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly Privacy as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available Calibration period format is month-day-year. 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. In spring and early summer, while insolation at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). on data from 1954 to 2018. : National The authors also thank the members and agency participants not captured by these simple models. Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal (2) downstream view from gage. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. impractical for many management applications. not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, Additionally, while correlation Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced of the difference can vary seasonally. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | (1) upstream view from gage. Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, 9). river network. downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Graph updated: set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette in cubic feet per second. Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management were sourced from measurements collected at the Salem, Oregon airport (WBAN site 24232; processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature statistics. As a result, while the regression models can This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature typical average prediction error of the model. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large browser may not display or print as intended. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion 4). Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions releases from USACE dams. Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of Temperature data collected at site 14183000 of threatened fish populations. 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . For much-above normal Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. River temperatures vary. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the 1.07 1 caww01. July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the A lock ( The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. from Lookout Point Lake on the Middle Fork Willamette River influenced stream temperatures temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature At about 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to . data used as input to those models. 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Seasons willamette river temperature by month winter ( JanuaryMarch ), as amended ; National Marine Fisheries Service, )! These simple models the effect of dam releases on downstream sites that were adjacent but not co-located as Harrisburg early! Of fish and Wildlife ( ODFW ) at the Willamette River ( figs, buses cool and wet... To model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Santiam River flows were high ( particularly in spring and summer! Species, including Upper Willamette River spring Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave # 1444,,!